Predicting a Clark's Nutcracker Irruption

I photographed this Clark's Nutcracker in northern Utah on 28 July 2013, but if it can't find enough pine nuts, it might be headed to your neighborhood.

I've seen two unusual events in the last few days that make me think this year might be a big one for vagrant Clark's Nutcrackers in the ABA area.  On Sunday, I was birding in typical Clark's Nutcracker habitat at about 8,100 ft. elevation near my home in northern Utah.  This is a species that is relatively common here, but we were doing a big day, and it's not so common that it is guaranteed to be found in the two or three hours we could afford to spend in its habitat.  In two or three hours of birding, we would expect to probably run in to a few of them.  Our expectations were off: in just a few hours last Sunday, we counted almost a hundred, moving around high overhead in flocks of up to 40.  Although the species is expected here, these kinds of numbers are not typical for this area and time of year in my experience.

This view of Cache Valley is from a point almost high enough to expect Clark's Nutcrackers.  That species is also expected across the valley, in the peaks covered with snow in this picture.  To find one down in the bottom of the valley, where you can see Cutler Reservoir shining, is very unusual, and is unheard of any time other than winter.

On Tuesday, a couple friends and I were birding in the middle of Cache Valley, at about 4,500 ft. elevation.  This is well below typical CLNU habitat, especially in summer.  In the seven years I've lived in this area, I know of just a few credible reports from the valley, almost all from the "benches" very near the mountains and all between October and December.  Yesterday, we saw a flock of 28 Clark's Nutcrackers flying over the middle of the valley, barely in to September.

This is what a Clark's Nutcracker can look like in a good year, with a crop full of pine nuts that it will cache around the area to feed on in the winter.  I photographed this one in 2011 in northeastern Nevada.

The Birds of North America account for the species indicates that Clark's Nutcracker irruptions are most likely to happen when two years of above average pine cone production is followed by a year of very poor production.  In years of good pine nut production, Clark's Nutcrackers are successful in raising young and mortality is low.  Two years of good production can build up population sizes well above normal.  When a bad year follows, there are way more Clark's Nutcrackers than nutcracker food, and the birds have to wander widely to find the nuts they need to survive.

In both 2011 and 2012, pine cone production by whitebark pines, one of the nutcracker's two main food sources, was higher than average.  The very dry winter last year (about 60% of typical snowpack locally, and around that or lower in much of the inland west) has caused poor production by whitebark pines this year, in Wyoming the lowest since about 2002.  Coincidentally, in 2002, Clark's Nutcrackers were reported from as far out of range as Alabama and Missouri.

This figure shows the standardized whitebark pine production from the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem for the last 24 years.  Note that both 2011 and 2012 were above average years, but 2013 is about the lowest since 2002.  This figure is from here and is in the public domain.

Based on my observations over the last few days, and the current status of whitebark pine production compared to previous years, I'm guessing that this will be a good year for vagrants of this species in North America.  Most movements of Clark's Nutcrackers are relatively local, so this is most likely to affect birders who live near Clark's Nutcracker habitat, but are a bit outside their usual range.  However, there is also potential for long-distance wandering, perhaps well outside of the species' expected range.  It might be helpful to study the call, and to be sure you're familiar with this species, so you're prepared if a Clark's Nutcracker should find its way near you this winter.

Ten Best Birds from St. Paul Island, 2012

Last summer (2012) I had the privilege of working as a guide on St. Paul Island, Alaska, with Scott Schuette and Doug Gochfeld.  St. Paul Island is one of the Pribilof Islands, a small group in the middle of the Bering Sea.  Its unique geographic location makes it a famous birding destination: it is slightly west of the easternmost tip of Russia, and so it frequently gets old-world vagrants.  Plus, it is a great spot to see some of the endemic Bering Sea species like Least Auklets, Crested Auklets, and Red-legged Kittiwakes.

Today, I want to show you the ten best birds of my 2012 season on the island.  There are many ways to define the "best" birds.  This is not a science.  The ranking here is strictly based on how much I enjoyed seeing them.  That is of course strongly affected by rarity, but these are not necessarily the ten rarest birds.


10. Wood Sandpiper.  This species is major rarity anywhere in the contiguous 48 states, but annual in small numbers at St. Paul.  I saw up to three individuals in a day, and photographed both juveniles (like this one) and an adult.

This juvenile Wood Sandpiper paused in Town Marsh on St. Paul Island while trying to find its way to Australia or southeast Asia. (copyright Ryan O'Donnell)

9. Gray-tailed Tattler.  Like the Wood Sandpiper, this species is annual on St. Paul but very rare in the contiguous 48: a bird in Massachusetts last fall was only the third North American record away from Alaska.  We had multiple sightings of this species in their fall migration, up to two in a day.   

This adult Gray-tailed Tattler was photographed on the sandy beach on the north side of the island, probably the first land it had seen since leaving Siberia on its way south. (copyright Ryan O'Donnell)

8. Little Stint.  Also rare in the contiguous 48, with total records probably around 50 sightings, and less than annual on St. Paul.  We had up to two individuals at a time on the island last year.

This juvenile Little Stint (at front right) joined a few juvenile Western Sandpipers to snack in the mudflats on St. Paul as it was headed south. (copyright Ryan O'Donnell)

7. Hawfinch.  This was high on my list of dream birds when I was preparing for my summer in the Pribilofs.  This bird, first spotted on May 23rd and still present a week later when our access to the area where the bird was found was closed for the fur seal breeding season, was the 10th record for the Pribilof Islands.  There are no North American records of this species outside of Alaska, and it is less than annual in Alaska.

This Hawfinch, with dirt on its bill from picking at seeds in the grass, is a Eurasian relative of our Evening Grosbeak. (copyright Ryan O'Donnell)

6. Tundra Bean-Goose.  This species is "casual" (less than annual) in Alaska, and unrecorded elsewhere in North America.  Many earlier records of "Bean Goose"from Alaska had to remain unidentified when the species was split into the Tundra Bean-Goose and Taiga Bean-Goose.  This was an exciting find as our first real Asian rarity of the season, on May 12th.

After we accidentally flushed this Tundra Bean-Goose from a small melt pond, I was afraid we wouldn't see it again.  A few minutes later, it circled back past us and I was able to take a few photos, including this one.  (copyright Ryan O'Donnell)

5. Terek Sandpiper.  Another of my dream birds before arriving on the island, this fall migrant hung around for several days and pleased many visiting birders.  This species is named for the Terek River where it was first discovered, a tributary of the Caspian Sea.

I love the unique head shape and upturned bill of this Terek Sandpiper.  (copyright Ryan O'Donnell)

4. Eurasian Bullfinch.  Wow, what a charmer!  This adult male was found coming to some seed spread by a local resident between houses in the center of town.  Imagine having this on your yard list in North America!  This was the first spring record for the Pribilofs, but there had been a handful of fall records.

The bold and beautiful male Eurasian Bullfinch, peeking up from a meal of millet.  (copyright Ryan O'Donnell)

3. Dark-sided Flycatcher.  Flycatchers in general are among my favorite groups of birds, pushing this drab juvenile into the top three.  This was the seventh of this species reported from the Pribilof Islands.

This juvenile Dark-sided Flycatcher probably found plenty of bugs in the leeward side of an old volcanic cone on St. Paul.  (copyright Ryan O'Donnell)

2. White-tailed Eagle.  This Asian counterpart to North America's Bald Eagle was first found early in the season and continued, off and on, for the rest of the year.  It would sometimes go missing for weeks at a time, and we suspected it might be moving between the Pribilof Islands.  It was frustrating at times because it never seemed to develop much of a pattern, making it hard to track down, but it was thrilling any time it happened to fly past as it hunted around the island.  This was the first time this species had been seen in the Pribilofs.

White-tailed Eagle soaring over St. Paul Island. (copyright Ryan O'Donnell)

1. Pin-tailed Snipe.  Easily the rarest bird, this was our only Code 5 bird (five or fewer North American records), and this was the fifth North American record.  The previous four records were all from Attu Island, at the western end of the Aleutians.  Attu is far enough west to be in the eastern hemisphere, so including one record from a remote part of the Hawaiian Islands, this was the second record for the western hemisphere.  This photo is about the best I could manage, but fortunately Doug was able to take some better ones!

Out-of-focus Pin-tailed Snipe flushing from the tundra of St. Paul Island (copyright Ryan O'Donnell)

The Next Great Adventure: 3.5 Months in the Pribilofs

I recently accepted a summer job working as a tour guide, mostly for birders, on St. Paul Island in the Pribilofs!  This will be an amazing experience, and a nice paid "vacation" (although I'll be working a lot of hours), before I start a real career in the fall.

The Pribilofs are a small cluster of islands in the Bering Sea, between Alaska and Russia.  They are less than 200 miles from Russian waters and about as close to Russia as they are to Anchorage.  The Pribilofs are a popular destination for birders, for two reasons.  First, there are a lot of north Pacific/Bering Sea species that can only be seen in this area.  For example, Red-faced Cormorants, Steller's Eiders, Least Auklets, Crested Auklets, Parakeet Auklets, Thick-billed Murres, Tufted Puffins, Horned Puffins, Red-legged Kittiwakes, and McCay's Buntings all breed here.  Second, because the islands are so remote and so close to Asia, they are a likely spot to find lost Asian birds.  This is a big deal for North American birders who are trying to build their life lists, especially for those who are concerned with their American Birding Association (ABA), North American, or United States lists.  Some of the more regular Asian vagrants on these islands include Gray-tailed Tattler, Wood Sandpiper, Red-necked Stint, Sharp-tailed Sandpiper, Slaty-backed Gull, and Eastern Yellow Wagtail.  But perhaps the biggest draw are the rarest birds: tours in previous years have found Brown Hawk-Owl, Gray Heron, Chinese Pond-Heron, Eurasian Hobby, Spotted Redshank, Great Knot, Solitary Snipe, Oriental Cuckoo, Great Spotted Woodpecker, Rufous-tailed Robin, Oriental Greenfinch, Hawfinch, and many more very rare species for North America, and you never know what might turn up here next.  To see the complete list, click here.

If birds aren't your thing, there's still plenty to see on the island.  The Pribilofs were once known as the "Seal Islands" because of the large colonies of Northern Fur Seals that breed there.  Walruses can be seen here, more rarely.  A feral herd of reindeer now roam the island.  The Pribilof Island Shrew lives only on St. Paul Island, where I'll be, and nowhere else in the world.  There is an island subspecies of Arctic Fox that is very common there.

If you are interested in visiting the island, you can go with any of several tour companies, but I'll be working for St. Paul Island Tours.  I hope to see you there!

Parakeet Auklets on St. Paul Island, in the Pribilofs.  Parakeet Auklets are one of the specialty species of the Bering Sea and they can be seen breeding on the cliffs around the island.  Photo by Francesco Veronesi and available through Creative Commons license.

Arctic Fox pup on St. Paul Island.  These adorable canids are common throughout the island.  Photo by "im me" and available through Creative Commons license.

Brown Hawk-Owl, photographed somewhere in Asia.  A Brown Hawk-Owl found on St. Paul Island in 2007 was the first record for North America.  Photo by Andy Li and available through Creative Commons license.

Vagrant Dickcissel and Birding Slump

Last week, Tony Jones heard a bird singing from the fields behind his house in Farmington; a bird he didn't recognize. It took him three more days to be able to see the bird, and then he was able to identify it as a Dickcissel. Dickcissels are typically an eastern species, so he knew this was a big deal. He sent word to the Utah birding community via the Utah Birders website, and many avid and excited birders soon arrived in his neighborhood to look for the bird. Today, I was one of those birders. I got this photograph, and some audio recordings (which I will share here later).

Only three previous records of Dickcissel have been accepted by the state Bird Records Committee. With the excellent photographs that have already been taken, it is almost certain that this bird will stand as the fourth accepted state record. What a great bird!

The timing of this bird is a bit of a surprise, as most vagrant records of this species, and the majority of vagrant records in general, come during spring or fall migration. This is the time when more birds are moving, and hence more birds are likely to get lost. But the fact that this bird was found in what is ornithologically-speaking the dead of summer supports the old axiom that anything can turn up anywhere. It is always a good time to go birding.

Birders in Utah have submitted fewer records to eBird for the first week of July than for almost any other week of the year (exceeded only by the second week of December). July is typically the start of a mid-summer birding slump. Spring migration is done, and fall migration hasn't picked up yet, so the motivation to go birding, and to enter those records in eBird, declines. But as the recent Dickcissel shows, rare birds can be found in mid-summer, too. And, the distribution and abundance of breeding birds is arguably the most important data that eBird can collect - especially now that the new data input pages allow you to record breeding indicators such as parents carrying food and the presence of fledglings. So don't let July get you down - go birding, and go eBirding. You never know what you might find.

Red-necked Grebe in Utah

On Saturday I got a call from Bob Atwood that he had just found a Red-necked Grebe at Hyrum Reservoir, about 20 minutes from my house in Logan. I was out of town at the time, but as soon as I got back the next day, yesterday, I headed down to see if I could find it. I set up my spotting scope on the dam where he had found the bird, and saw a tiny speck on the water about a quarter mile out. There were probably lots of other specks on the water, but luck was on my side and the first one I noticed was the target bird, my first Red-necked Grebe in Utah and my first anywhere in breeding plumage.

I drove around to the closest point on the shore to the bird, and couldn't find it. I was afraid it might have flown while I was driving, but it was also swimming pretty fast and I thought it might have just swam out of my view from that point, where trees were on either side of me and I could only see straight out from the shore. I drove back around near the dam, and saw the bird closer to me than I expected, and getting closer to shore. I climbed down the shore and scanned again for the bird. Just when I thought I lost it again, it resurfaced right in front of me! I got a few good shots then, and several more by running down the shoreline each time the grebe dove, and lying still on the rocks ahead of it before it resurfaced.

Red-necked Grebes have been seen several times in Utah, but they are very rare here. There are about a dozen previous records for the state, and most are of immatures or non-breeding adults in the winter. This bird was unique not only because it is so rare, but especially because it was in full breeding plumage. What a great bird!

(Photos copyright Ryan O'Donnell 2011)